Changes coming...

Increased low level and surfaces winds have kept fog from being as widespread in southern LA this morning, but some area are still seeing reduced visibility. There should be less fog tomorrow as winds increase a bit more and lead to more mixing.

Acadiana is still looking mostly dry through the week, and rain chances are looking a bit better for the Houston area. Today looks mostly dry for SE TX, but tomorrow there should be a few scattered showers through the day with a better chance of showers Thursday along with the risk of a few thunderstorms. Midday and early afternoon will see the highest rain chances on Thursday as a trough of low pressure (dry line / weak cold front) moves in from the west. I'm not anticipating any flash flooding, but locally, an inch or so is possible with most areas see less.

After a mostly dry, warm and humid weekend (for both SE TX and Acadiana) the forecast gets real fun late this weekend and early next week. An initial shot of cold air will get sent down the Plains Thursday and Friday, which is expected to get hung up over Oklahoma and Missouri through Saturday. Then, a second surge of colder air out of Canada will get sent down the Plains Saturday and Sunday which will eventually make it down through the Gulf Coast. The leading edge of the cold air will be pretty sharp (drastic change in temp) and shallow (not far up in the atmosphere) which is very problematic for forecast models. Typically, the cold air dives farther south quicker than expected. However, I'm not certain the models have the strength of the cold front quite right yet. Actually, I am pretty certain they don't. Regardless, I'm thinking we'll be looking at a late Sunday or early Monday cold front passage, but it could easily be earlier on Sunday or later on Monday. My gut says things will trend earlier rather than later.

As far as rain with the front, its certainly not looking like a gully washer. Ahead of the front, there should be some shower and thunderstorm activity, but most of the rain will likely occur behind the front in the form of areas of steady rain. There is a lot of inconsistency with the model data, as you'd expect, this far out. But, there is a chance we could see thick clouds and light rain hang around into mid week. We'll see how things trend in the coming days.

Regardless, Halloween is looking chilly...just not sure if it will be wet or not.

God Bless