Severe storms...cold temps...windy...rainy...

As expected last week, this week is shaping up to be a very active weather week. First things first...we got some severe weather to deal with today. All the ingredients will be in place for severe storms capable of tornadoes, hail and locally damaging wind gusts from SE TX through Acadiana. The variable that is the most uncertain, typically is, will be how and where there will be enough lift to get the strong storms going. The few factors at play or daytime heating (clouds and sun), the warm front (should lift into East Texas Piney Woods through Cen LA) and the cold front (will sweep through this evening). The warm front is expected to get the most play from East Texas Piney Woods this afternoon through Cen LA this afternoon and this evening. However, if there strong enough heating from the sun this afternoon, isolated severe storms could pop anywhere across the Greater Houston area through Acadiana. Its just a lower chance. There will be scattered showers around, its just the thunderstorms that are more uncertain. Once the cold front swings through tonight, there won't be as much moisture, instability and lift, but some of the data is hinting at a secondary axis of more severe activity developing on the eastern fringes of Acadiana this evening and tracking eastward through the Baton Rouge area and the Florida Parishes. The SPC (storm prediction center) has the greatest risk area for severe thunderstorms highlighted nicely below (www.spc.noaa.gov)... Keep in mind, tornadoes will be a higher than normal threat in the ENH (enhanced) region.

Gusty north-northwesterly winds will crank up late tonight and continue tomorrow behind the cold front bringing that colder air in. Very chilly conditions should continue through the rest of the week which will be enhanced by the lack of sunshine. There may even be some showers around Thanksgiving afternoon around Houston and Thanksgiving night over Acadiana...the timing is still very uncertain though. There should be a reinforcing shot of high pressure by the weekend which will keep temperatures below normal over the weekend and into next week. Clouds and some showers could stick around as well.

Keep an eye on the watches and warnings today and enjoy the chilly Thanksgiving Holiday!

God Bless